World's Most Human-Like Android Wasn't Unveiled at GF2045

Headlines preceding the Global Future 2045 Congress proclaimed: WORLD’S MOST HUMAN-LIKE ANDROID TO BE UNVEILED AT GF2045

“The Dmitry Avatar-A head represents the most expressive facial robot in history and far exceeds the life-like characteristics of previous robot portraits of humans in both technology and artistry,” stated David Hanson. “The Dmitry Avatar-A head can establish eye contact, recognize faces, and carries out natural spoken conversation.

"Facial expressions were created with 36 degrees of freedom (servomotors) with high-resolution sensors in the eyes. The Dmitry Avatar-A head also benefits from a new hyper-expressive formulation of Hanson’s proprietary nanotech material called “Frubber,” a spongy, structured elastic polymer that expertly mimics the movement of real human musculature and skin, as well as new mechanisms for improved facial expressions," explained Hanson. 

In addition to the press releases, an in-depth NY Times article by David Segal described how it was being built, showed pictures of the work in progress, told what it was to do, and the personality and language characteristics that it was to incorporate.

Well it didn't happen. None of it.

Rumor had it that Hanson was running late. His day 1 speaking spot was moved to day 2. But as day 2 progressed Hanson still hadn't arrived. GF2045 staff stretched the various talks and roundtables. At 5:30 of day 2, in a flurry of rushing people, Hanson and his wife and child arrived and were immediately whisked away to a stage anteroom with not a single comment to the waiting press and camera crews (and not an android head in sight; not even big unmarked boxes). At 6 pm Dmitry Itskov had a choice: extend the conference to add Hanson and his AI partner Ben Goertzel, or give his summary and farewell remarks with perhaps a comment or two about why the new android didn't appear. He chose to ignore the situation and ended the conference with his summary statement.

Those of us who came to see the new Hanson head, Goertzel's AI, and Itskov gestures, went away disappointed.

In an official statement released by the the 2045 press crew, Dmitry said:

“We so appreciate the patience and support of everyone waiting for what we thought might be a concluding crescendo to the congress. But just like many other technological advances, failure is sometimes a part of the road to success. While we had hoped to see the android head in full working order weeks ago, there were delays and it arrived in a much too premature condition to show to the public. We hope that we can show you something very soon.” 

I asked David Hanson what had happened and he replied by email:

I'm sorry! I worked hard to finish the robot in time, but it proved impossible.  Actually my team and I worked all night Friday and Saturday, arriving in NYC on Sunday afternoon. Because the robot wasn't finished to his satisfaction, Dmitry canceled our talk and chose not to show the robot. I understand his decision and regret the inconveniences to you and everyone who came to see me and Ben. My robots are complex works of art, and this is the most complex and ambitious one I've made yet. I know there are risks and uncertainties that come along with making such robots; however, it's heartbreaking to me to miss this deadline, and I am sorry. 

Hopefully Hanson will get the new avatar to work to Dmitry's satisfaction and Dmitry will show it to the public soon. I can't wait!

By the way, the GF2045 conference was really interesting and worthwhile. I'll have another posting on that shortly.

Don't throw out the baby with the bath water

By Frank Tobe, Editor/Publisher, The Robot Report

University of Sheffield (UK) AI and Robotics Professor Noel Sharkey (red tie) leading a group to protest killer robots.

There have been many headlines about "killer robots" and invasion of privacy. They protest that robots will soon choose targets and then bomb or shoot those targets under their own direction and will also invade people's privacy through the use of drones. The issue, without the hyperbole, is whether there should be controls, what those controls should be, and who should administer them so that when advanced autonomous versions of today's drones happen, as is sure to be the case 10-30 years from now, they won't have the capability to kill people without human and governmental supervision and observe without legal authority.

Drones aren't the only killer robots being discussed. There are also armed border robots in Israel and Korea, automatic missile defense systems on land and ships in many countries, and police surveillance drones. Except in the case of incoming missile defense, we don't presently have the artificial intelligence capabilities to autonomously pick targets and implement armed attacks. In fact, we are many years away from that reality. Yet the headlines are written as if it is already happening.

Armed with Hellfire missiles, General Atomics Predator drone prepares for take-off.

"Killer robots" is a "sell-papers" type of issue. It uses enflamed rhetoric because of America's prolonged and very public use of armed drones to kill terrorists (albeit with a committee of human pilots and operators that actually pull the trigger even though they are thousands of miles away from the action) and the anger and moral, ethical and legal backlash to that.

Nevertheless, these scary headlines, which call for banning drones of all types, are obscuring the worth of forthcoming commercial applications for unmanned and autonomous flying robots. Unmanned aerial vehicles and systems (UAV and UAS) in agriculture, for mapping and surveying, for search and rescue, disaster relief, science, border patrol and a myriad other applications will begin to appear in America in 2016 (earlier in the EU and Australia where they aren't as limited by the FAA as are the Americans).

There is no denying the commercial value of these new UASs. One story involving drones occurred recently in Haiti -- it has all the elements of smart business, enterprising activists, the fun of flying, and the pleasure of helping. But this story didn't receive any headlines.

Adam Klaptocz is an engineer and project manager with senseFly, a Swiss spin-off from the EPFL (and recently acquired by the Parrot Group). senseFly makes drones for mapping. Their eBee drone can take pictures down to 2" precision. Adam and another senseFly employee, Emanuele Lubrano, independently founded a non-profit organization, Drone Adventures, to focus on humanitarian, conservation and cultural uses of drones beyond just mapping. Their first project - funded entirely by donations and grants from the IOM - was a two-week trip to Haiti.

"When a natural disaster (such as an earthquake or a hurricane) changes the landscape of an entire city in just a few minutes, how can rescue teams search for survivors when satellite images no longer represent the state of the city? How can organizations distribute aid and coordinate reconstruction of dense urban areas that expand and change on a daily basis? 

"Such dire and complex situations are exactly where drones and their abilities shine! Drones are similar to light and inoffensive RC model planes but with some key differences: they have an artificial intelligence on-board that allows them to fly autonomously and make “flight decisions” (example: my battery is too low, better go back and land now). They are equipped with sensors for monitoring the flight in real time (GPS, altimeter, wind-speed sensor, etc.). They have a “payload” used to deliver a service; in the case of mapping it’s a camera used to take pictures of the ground from the sky."

Haiti has endured several recent natural disasters including a terrible earthquake at the beginning of 2010, a violent cholera epidemic at the end of 2010 and Hurricane Sandy at the end of 2012. Disasters not only result in casualties but they also change the landscape of the country; buildings and roads are destroyed and refugees create ever-moving encampments. There is a continuous need for up-to-date imagery for aid distribution, reconstruction and disaster relief.

"We arrived in Haiti with three eBee drones, a stack of computers running Pix4UAV by Pix4D and open minds. During our 10 days in the country we worked closely with our partners, IOM (International Organization for Migration) and Open Street Map, two organisations that have years of experience on the ground in Haiti.

"We covered over 45km2 of territory [about 11,000 acres] in 10 different areas during 6 days of intense mapping in some of the densest urban territory we’ve ever worked in to provide international organizations with the maps and 3D models they needed to do their jobs.

"Mapping of several dense shantytowns in Port-au-Prince, were used to count the number of tents and organize a “door-to-door” census of the population, the first step in identifying aid requirements and organizing more permanent infrastructure. 3D terrain models were also created to identify dangerous river beds in order to plan infrastructures and protect dense urban encampments from flooding.

"The terrain models will also be used to perform water-flow simulations and decide where to build infrastructure to mitigate flooding. We also provided 2D and 3D maps of the brand-new University of Limonade in the north of Haiti to help promote the school for the next generation of youth of Haiti.

"All the data that we generated has been made freely available through OpenStreetMap to all the great people we met during this mission, and without whom this mission would not have been possible."

The Drone Adventures video below shows the fun, the involvement, the flexibility and the need. Bravo to these two adventurers and their new organization.

Although Parrot and senseFly didn't fund Drone Adventures, they think the project is creative and might want to take part in future missions.

I'm worried that all the negative headlines - and fear reactions to those headlines - may lead to legislation which could hamper the natural emergence of this new and very capable technology. Hence the headline of this article: Don't throw out the baby with the bath water.

An inspiring article by a future roboticist

[In July, 2011, I interviewed and then wrote about an inspiring high school teacher who spearheaded the founding of the Dos Pueblos Engineering Academy, was the 2010 recipient of a $500,000 MacArthur Fellow award, and is the lead character in the book The New Cool by Neal Bascomb which tells the story of his high school's winning entry in the 2008 F.I.R.S.T. robotics competition.

Below is a story about a similar science program and series of robotics competitions in a small town 40 miles north of Atlanta, Georgia. It is written by a high school junior, Brandon Gross, who asked to write about his and his fellow student enthusiasts and their program. 

The underlying issues in both stories are the same: using competitive robotics to stimulate STEM training in middle and high schools and the need for mentoring and local business participation.]

By Brandon Gross, Forsyth Central High School, Cumming, GA

High school is where students learn important skills to function as capable members of the community -- but not necessarily about the concepts and components of why or how something works. This is where the STEM Academy at Forsyth Central High School comes into play. Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) are an important aspect in everyone’s lives and are often overlooked; my high school did not even have funding for an engineering department until our STEM Academy was founded.

Our robotics program is under the umbrella of the Forsyth Alliance, which is home to teams that participate in First Robotics Competition (FRC), First Lego League (FLL), VEX Robotic Competitions, Boosting Engineering, Science and Technology (BEST), and Marine Advanced Technology Education (MATE) robotics. The main goal of the Alliance is to put a robotics team in every school in Forsyth County, GA, and they are close to achieving that.

The Alliance was founded in 2005, and started with a single FRC team made up from two of the five high schools in the county. Now, just 8 years later, the Forsyth Alliance has three FRC teams and hosts some of the largest qualifiers for FLL and VEX in the state.

Robotics engineering is important for the future and encompasses many different disciplines, e.g.: mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, computer hardware and software development, industrial engineering, and more. Robotics in school is a great tool to teach the key skills that a employer would want to hire. Robotics is also a perfect match for STEM, as it meets all the criteria that STEM requires.

Forsyth Central High School’s STEM Academy has achieved great things: our first year brought several teams to the Forsyth Vex Robotics qualifier. 40 teams competed, 2 placed in the top 16, and one of the teams competed in the Finals. That team received the “Build Award” for a competing robot that is very robust. The following year, three teams participated in a tournament at the South Forsyth Vex Qualifier. Two of the teams were knocked out in the final match against the home team but one of the teams received the “Judges Award” for design process and documentation. Later that year, five teams from my school returned to compete at the Forsyth Qualifier. Three made it to the Finals, and one won the tournament and qualified for the Vex World Competition. The same team also took home trophies for highest drivers score, and highest autonomous skills score. In FRC, Forsyth Central H.S. competed at the Peachtree Regional, and placed 6th (but was knocked out in the Finals).

Much of our achievements are due to the help of our teacher and mentor, Mr. David Johnson who provides knowledge and input wherever students require it. He also pushes them to be creative and solve things on their own. Mr. Johnson puts in more hours than many teachers and coaches, receiving the payment of only satisfaction seeing a team succeed.

The Forsyth Alliance’s primary sponsor is Automation Direct, a national electronics parts sales company headquartered in Cumming, GA. Automation Direct provides startup money for all new robotics teams in the county, and has been a crucial component in the development of the robotics community at Forsyth. They also provide the resource of time with valuable mentors. Mentors such as Rick Folea (primary founder of the Forsyth Alliance), who are invaluable resources to the teams. Their motto is “Real Engineers, Real Mentors, and Real Projects.”

Back left to right : Emily Brickell, Trent Callan, Jacob Boyer, Bradley Shuford, Brandon Gross

Front left to right: Drew Mclean, Richard Garcia, Caleb Puentes. 

Forsyth Central H.S. competed against 412 other teams from several countries at the Vex World Championship in Anaheim, California in April, 2013. Our team had many issues such as tripping motors and bent axles. But we pushed through the problems and kept our heads high, and managed to get our act together by the last day. We ended with a 3-7 win-loss record, two of the wins coming from the last day of competition. We also ended with a 195 point driver’s skills score, placing us at 39th in the world. Instead of sleeping on our flights home, we started designing and brainstorming for our next robot. The team found their first world competition was an invaluable experience, and hope to compete at a much higher level the following season.

This summer, our school is the official service department for our local Sheriff’s bomb squad robots. We are in charge of fixing one of the robots, and revamping another. On one of the robots they are adding a manipulator to drag suspicious bags away from the general public. The team hopes to see the real life application of their robotic knowledge from working on these robots.

My school is hosting a Vex robotics summer camp for 6th graders. The goal is to inspire young students to take an interest in robotics and STEM. The camp is 5 days long and will involve lessons on gear ratios, programming, space management, and teamwork. The teams will also be given a budget that they must manage to build a robot. The student teams will compete against each other (and maybe even a few high school robots) for trophies on the final day. Hopefully these students will be inspired enough to continue the legacy that the current class of Forsyth Central has created.

Also this summer, our robotics team and our Technology Student Association are making an engineering/robotics presentation in front of the local Rotary Club to gain exposure and educate the community about the exciting experiences we have accomplished.

I hope that many other schools in the USA get involved in offering STEM and Engineering/Robotics programs to their students as the future holds many outstanding opportunities in the employment arena for all involved. It takes many people in the community to make programs such as ours successful. I personally want to thank each and every one of them for the time and money they have invested into my education to help make my dreams come true and my future bright.

Rethink Robotics' Baxter and Universal Robots UR5 and UR10 Succeeding

By Frank Tobe, Editor and Publisher, The Robot Report

Low-cost robots are marching into Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

Much has been said about the need to augment the skills and increase the productivity of small factory workers by using robotic assistants called co-robots. Europe funded an SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) public-private consortium to determine the needs and develop robotic solutions for those needs. In America, venture and privately-funded Rethink Robotics whose founder and CTO is ex-MIT Professor and co-founder of iRobot Rodney Brooks has been doing the same thing: developing an adaptive manufacturing robot that can work safely alongside human workers. Brooks is devoted to - and an eloquent spokesman for - his mission of creating smarter, more adaptable, low-cost robotic solutions that can help manufacturers improve efficiency, increase productivity and reduce their need for offshoring.

Almost all of the big industrial robot makers have or are working on lightweight and human-friendly arms, but are not offering them at low cost, or with user-friendly training, or the plug and play features. In addition to them, there are other robot startups in the SME marketplace - and on the horizon - but none are as far along in their development and low cost as these two at-present privately-held companies: Rethink Robotics and Universal Robots.

Rethink Robotics' Baxter

Rethink Robotics' new Baxter robot is getting a software upgrade. Big deal? Actually, it is. When Rethink Robotics launched Baxter late in 2012, it was obvious that Baxter needed some improvements. Rodney Brooks promised those improvements incrementally over the next few months and year. Brooks' vision was to have a hardware platform frequently enhanced with new software and capabilities - and it is happening as promised and on schedule.

Rethink recently launched an academic version of Baxter with a Software Development Kit (SDK) enabling users to train the robot and share their programs with other Baxter owners. Although the SDK academic version is different than the production model, after a while, the concept of an open SDK and an Apple-like app store will be enabled across Rethink's whole product line.

Just the other day Rethink upgraded their operating system to V1.1 to make it easier to integrate existing factory machine synchronization, I/O and task sequencing and ordering systems into Baxter's repertoire of programs - a very neat and necessary feature. Now Baxter can integrate and connect with up to 9 digital ports to existing automation systems through signaling. This new update also enables users to coordinate actions across Baxter's two arms.

Baxters are being produced at a pace for sales of 500+ units in 2013.

Universal Robots UR5 and UR10 Robots

Danish Universal Robots (UR) has quickly built an extensive North American distributor network of 16 experienced robot integrator/distributors.

One of those new distributors, Scott Hendrickson, CEO of Olympus Controls, said: "The quality of new leads has been off the charts. Most of our existing clients are Fortune 500 companies, but now we’re able to better service small business owners on Main Street as well,” he says, attributing the growth to the cost and ease of use of the UR robot. “In typical robot solutions, you multiply the robot cost by three or more to get the end price due to safety guarding and expensive programming. None of this is necessary with the new Universal Robots.” Hendrickson went on to say: "We believe these new robots will soon cross the chasm between early adopters and mainstream users."

“A key selling point of our robots is that they are continuously upgraded”, said UR Sales Manager Kristian Hulgard. “Once purchased, our users can expect a steady stream of software upgrades giving them access to all the new features on the latest robots to leave the factory. This makes their investment future-proof.”

UR is building 100+ robots a month of which approximately 25-30% are for customers in the U.S. for 2013.

Both UR and Rethink are finding price acceptability and each have provided case studies of how their robots are being utilized.

Features Comparison

A Couple of Examples of How These Robots Are Being Used

Universal Robot picking and placing multi-sized
creams in Johnson & Johnson factory in Greece.

At a Johnson & Johnson factory in Greece, a UR5 is used on a production line where it performs repetitive pick and place tasks as a link between two parts of a production line.

The robot takes bottles of cream from one production line, and places them onto the packaging line. Flexibility is the key requirement because there are several different types of creams coming down the line, each positioned differently.

The Greek integrator/distributor, InnoPro Technologies, which sold and installed the robot, said that J&J engineers were 100% satisfied and have even given the robot a name.

Baxter picking and boxing plastic parts at
Rodon Group factory in Pennsylvania.

A Baxter robot has been deployed at the Rodon Group, a Hatfield, PA injection molder and is among the first plastics processors to deploy a Baxter robot. It is being used for repetitive tasks like picking up parts off a conveyor and placing them into boxes or onto a nearby packaging line.

The robot is being "trained" by the very people it is assisting. Because Baxter is oblivious to heat or noise, it can take on those “hard to fill” positions in noisy and un-airconditioned industrial circumstances.

Favorable jury verdict may offset flurry of bad publicity for Intuitive Surgical

By Frank Tobe, Editor and Publisher, The Robot Report

UPDATED: 5-24-13 Jury finds Intuitive NOT GUILTY. Scroll to end to see details.

One of robotics' biggest stars, Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), and their da Vinci robotic surgical systems, is receiving a lot of unfavorable media attention - including a 4-part "exposé" by MSNBC - because:

1. A month-long suit alleging injuries tied to the robot surgery used in a 2008 procedure to remove a patient's prostrate claims that the surgeon was not adequately trained.
2. A recent JAMA article showed that although the number of robotically assisted hysterectomy procedures is up, their effectiveness is the same as laparoscopic methods but their costs are about $2,000 higher per procedure.
3. The FDA recently initiated a probe asking surgeons at numerous hospitals to identify complications with the da Vinci machines.
4. Intuitive sends note out about a scissor instrument known as Hot Shears saying the instrument could develop small, invisible cracks, which can potentially cause a leak of electricity that can burn patients. It describes precautions to take before using the instrument but also says an additional message will be sent once a replacement instrument is available.

The trial - Taylor v. Intuitive Surgical, Superior Court, State of Washington, Kitsap County, 09-2-03136-5 - began mid April and is expected to last a month. In the opening statements on the first day of the trial, lawyers for both sides stated their cases:

PLAINTIFF: That Intuitive Surgical designed a watered down training program to make it easier for them to sell systems to hospitals thereby compromising surgical quality which, in this case, led to complications which caused the man to die. They further claim that the lack of training and steep learning curve caused mistakes which led to kidney failure, brain damage, permanent incontinence, the need to wear a colostomy bag, and ultimately, heart failure and death. 

DEFENDENT: That injuries suffered by the obese and medically-troubled patient occurred after the robotic systems was unplugged and not in use; the injuries happened after the robotic surgery was completed. That training, supervision and case selection warnings are and were adequate but in this case not heeded.

Since that time there have been stories from the courtroom suggesting that Intuitive targeted a category of urologists who have "basic or limited laparoscopic skills and who currently perform traditional prostate removals" as if that form of marketing was a bad thing.

Taking advantage of the notoriety of the court case are three class action suits alleging:

1. One firm is investigating potential claims against the board of Intuitive because the FDA MAUDE database of adverse events involving medical procedures is "significantly understated in terms of da Vinci-related complications."
2. Another class action suit has been filed alleging that officers and directors of Intuitive violated SEC provisions and issued materially false and misleading statements highlighting the purported safety and effectiveness of the da Vinci system, concealed at least 10 lawsuits, and therefore are responsible for artificially inflating stock prices during the class action period.
3. A third class action suit has been filed almost identical to the one above.

MSNBC did a four-part story called "The Da Vinci Debate" with segments titled "Controversy over surgical robotics heats up," "Patients scarred after robotic surgery," Counting the problems of robot-assisted surgery," and "Marketing is key to surgical robot's success."

In spite of all this, financial and stock results for Intuitive are doing okay. Intuitive's first quarter results showed surprisingly high profits and revenue. Intuitive narrowed their 2013 revenue projections slightly to account for possibly lower procedure rates for hysterectomies and the stock took drops at the end of February and mid-March and has held steady since then.

Intuitive has yet to present their defense in the court case and to the public. For example, the JAMA article said that robotically-assisted procedures cost $2,000 more than similar laparoscopic methods but the researchers who wrote the paper didn't reduce the $2,000 for the effects of reduced hospital stays and less post-recovery work which in many cases are said to save hospitals more than $2,000 per procedure.

UPDATE 5-6-2013:

As Intuitive begins to defend itself in the Taylor case, multiple witnesses testified that heart disease, not a failed robotic procedure, killed the patient. Further, Taylor's arteries were 50 to 90% blocked and he had bypass surgery in 2002. Another witness testified that Taylor's health risks prior to the prostate surgery - diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and his obesity (280# on a 5'8" frame) - ultimately caused his heart to stop.

UPDATE: 5-14-2-13:

Intuitive sends note out to customers about a scissor instrument known as Hot Shears saying the instrument could develop small, invisible cracks, which can potentially cause a leak of electricity that can burn patients. It describes precautions to take before using the instrument but also says an additional message will be sent once a replacement instrument is available.

Three additional law firms (Ryan & Maniskas, Rigrodsky and Long, and Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro) filed class action suits alleging that ISRG issued a series of false or misleading statements to investors and thereby failed to fully disclose to investors the financial impact of safety problems with its da Vinci Surgical System.

UPDATE: 5-19-2-13:

Since ISRG's stock took its initial two dives (at the end of February and again mid-March), most of the stock analysts have been saying that it's a good buy at the lower price. One analyst predicts an $800 price in a year or so. Looking at the chart above which compares Intuitive to the NASDAQ index which is up close to 15% YTD, the hits on Intuitive's stock can be seen more clearly as down 3% YTD and hasn't really recovered from the two hits.

Meantime, with no good news to counter the spate of negative news, two more law firms have joined in filing class action suits against Intuitive alleging the same as the others described earlier in this posting.

UPDATE: 5-21-2-13:

Lawyers concluded their closing arguments and the case went to the jury.

PLAINTIFF: Intuitive is to blame for injuries stemming from a 2008 robot-assisted prostate removal because of Intuitive's inadequate training which was streamlined and compromised by the company's agressive efforts to sell their robots. 

DEFENDENT: Intuitive's warnings to not use the da Vinci device for complicated procedures went unheeded by plaintiff's urologist and that person is responsible for plaintiff's injuries. During the course of the trial Intuitive said that the urologist knew the path he was on was unduly risky but proceeded nevertheless. It was also disclosed that the plaintiff had previously sued and settled claims again the urologist and the hospital but those documents and the settlement details were secret.

UPDATE: 5-24-2-13:

Jurors reached a 10-2 verdict in favor of Intuitive after the five-week trial.  Intuitive ownes no damages or any other fees.

The win may reduce the heat of the arguments by the many law firms filing class action suits about false claims by Intuitive regarding their financial performance and corresponding stock price. 

In after hours trading, as news of the verdict came out, the stock (NASDAQ:ISRG) rose to $498, a 5% gain for the day and night. 

For further details, see the Bloomberg story and watch the video from the local TV station.

Certainly the trial victory is a boon for Intuitive and it's legal team. But the many months of ill-worded negative headlines will take a while to overcome.

A conversation with Henri Seydoux

By Frank Tobe, Editor and Publisher, The Robot Report

Parrot's AR.Drone without styrofoam bumper guard (top) and with (bottom).

A growing business within Parrot S.A., (PARRO:EUROLIST B) is their AR.Drone line of products, parts and software. Their first quadcopter product was developed internally by (1) observing the $1 billion market in radio controlled helicopters, (2) seeing gamers interest in using their game devices to drive cars, planes and copters, and (3) the increasingly widespread use of MEMS inertial sensors and high-definition digital cameras in consumer products. These were the building blocks from which came the AR.Drone, a super successful quad-motored copter flown partially autonomously and also by an app on your iPhone or smart tablet. AR.Drones have been sold to an eager audience of global consumers 400,000 strong!

As an aside, part of the business plan for selling the AR.Drones is to also sell parts to repair the devices when they crash - an inevitable outcome of the adventure of flying them. Parrot has made buying replacement parts easy and provides visual tutorials on how to install replacement parts and make needed repairs. A bit like printer companies selling their own brand of paper and ink.

Henri Seydoux, Founder, Chairmen and CEO, Parrot SA.

I had a brief chat with Henri Seydoux, founder, chairman and CEO of Parrot S.A., who said that there are more innovations coming. The success of the AR.Drone and now the AR.Drone 2 has proven Henri's conviction that there is a large consumer market for this type of entertainment product and that there are other related high-potential markets on the horizon. But that's not all that's in store: Henri has a large cache (about €40 million) to invest in acquisitions to further his pursuit of innovations and products for this market, a market composed of any entertainment, consumer or professional use of drones (but not for defense, military or police activities).

Three recent acquisitions along those lines include senseFly, a Swiss start-up of a series of UASs for commercial survey, mapping and monitoring work; Pix4D, another Swiss start-up providing aerial image and 3D mapping processing software, and Varioptic, a provider of miniature cameras with adjustable lens offering autofocus and image stabilization solutions. 

Professional drones providing mapping and geographical information for surveying, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, environmental observation and protection and town planning also fit Seydoux's vision. 

Henri says that there may be an overabundance of UAS vendors at present however he is confident that Parrot, with their extensive experience in mass production and product engineering will continue to be able to achieve low-cost affordable products, and will thus prevail as a market leader.

The final word about robots and jobs

By Frank Tobe, Editor and Publisher, The Robot Report

At the Xconomy Forum held in Palo Alto earlier this week, the focal topic was "Robots Remake the Workplace." It was expected that the jobs issue would permeate the event... do robots take away jobs? Instead, what was evident to all in the room was that all the speakers were in the new Service Robotics sector of the industry and they were all creating new jobs.

A few simple facts emerged:

1. It's true: industrial robots do take away jobs, often in big numbers. Generally, these are jobs that humans don't want to do or shouldn't be doing. After a short time, the displaced workers are replaced in higher level tasks (and perhaps re-distributed downstream or elsewhere). This process has and will continue to be happening.
   
2. On the other hand, Service Robotics create jobs that didn't exist before, often in respectable numbers, numbers that today - as Service Robotics grow - may very well equal or exceed jobs lost by the use of industrial robots. And these new jobs could grow to much greater numbers as the industry continues to flourish. These are jobs that people want and that pay well.
   
3. There is a political component not presently being adequately addressed as automation transform the workplace by replacing humans with machines that have encapsulated their skills and can perform those skills flawlessly. Retraining and upgrading the general educational system to enable the higher tech skills needed for these new jobs needs a shot of reality instead of spin.
   
4. Under the rubric that success breeds success, each recent successful robotics venture was less focused on the metrics of labor cost reduction than on enabling growth limited by hard-to-find labor.

Curt Carlson, President & CEO, SRI

As we move quickly toward what Curt Carlson, CEO of SRI International, said is a "zero inventory, zero delay, and 100% personalized" world, it will likely be true that fewer people will be working in manufacturing.

Carlson's catchy phrase encapsulates both the complexity and simplicity of the process - and the momentum for it to happen. The process will likely be driven by (1) lower costs of sensors, CPUs and hardware and (2) more capable AI, and the drivers propelling it forward will be the aging population and global competitiveness.

Thus jobs were not the main topic at the Xconomy Forum; the issue was an aside. The main topic was really the progress and inroads robotics are adding to the global automation and business solutions process.

The jobs issue did lend itself to the two best jokes of the day:

1. Ten years from now all the robots will be out on strike saying, "Those damn 3D printers are taking away our jobs!"
   
2. Let's reconvene this debate 10 years from now when we have all this time on our hands [after our jobs have been replaced by robots].

Stanford Robot Block Party - part of National Robotics Week

I'm always surprised when I come to Stanford. I find new companies setting up shop in the area. Ford's new research lab wasn't there the last time I drove by, for example.

Later, when walking around Palo Alto and in a restaurant I could hear snippets of conversation that were different than most other college towns. Bio med devices, hardware, software, VCs, appointments with funders, crowd funders, etc. nothing about love, philosophy, literature.

At the Robot Block Party held on the Stanford campus and part of National Robotics Week, everybody had a chance to see and talk with somebody about what they were seeing.

Instead of just seeing a Lidar spinning around on top of a car, at the block party you could walk around the back and see a sun-shaded monitor showing what the Lidar was seeing. And talk with an eager young salesperson about what you could do with the data.

Crowded with lots of kids, one booth stood out as a kid-pleaser. This year's F.I.R.S.T. contest includes shooting frisbees into a raised box so nearby Sarasota high school team was there at the block party with their entry into the contest shooting off frisbees to clutches of happy kids trying to catch them.

Elad Inbar of Robot App Store got to demo his new STEM package, a novel approach to teach by example using different robotic products.

Intuitive Surgical was showing the simplicity of their arm/wrist/fingers but also the amount of complex mechanics that make it work.

Bosch, although showing their new Indego robotic lawn mower, was really recruiting for all the different types of activities that Bosch Research is involved with.

And then there was a phd candidate telling about the progress he's making with his VTOL quad copter/4-engined plane.

No refreshment stands or even bottled water -- and it was hot (85)! But it was a beautiful day and the chatter from kids and adults was upbeat and appreciative for the event. As was I.

Do Industrial Robots Really Have A Positive Impact On Employment?

By Frank Tobe, Editor and Publisher, The Robot Report

Source: KUKA, 1983

Do industrial robots really have a positive impact on employment? Of course they do and there are over 50 years of data proving that to be the case. 

There are at least 350,000 people directly employed by and in the industrial robotics industry. However, industrial robots are not made in the U.S.; they are made in Japan, Korea and Europe, consequently more than half of those 350,000 jobs are offshore. 

There are ancillary providers of components, software and other services for robots and installations but these jobs are hard to quantify. In general manufacturing there are known multipliers but in robotics, there is no known formula to extrapolate just how many jobs in these ancillary businesses are attributable to robotics.

The deployment of robots into a factory situation involves even more complex computations and assumptions -- which is why the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) commissioned the UK-based research firm Metra Martech in 2009 to figure out how to compute the effect on jobs of the deployment of industrial robots. 

The IFR annually collects, reports on shipments and sales, computes robots at work (versus idle or abandoned), and makes five-year sales and deployment projections of industrial and service robots worldwide. They summarize their data into two comprehensive books: World Robotics Industrial Robots 2012 and World Robotics Service Robots 2012 reflecting data for 2011. The 2013 books covering 2012 data will be available later this year.

Original Metra Martech Report:

Metra Martech's original report was delivered in February, 2011. It concluded that they had determined a job-creation ratio of 3.6 jobs for every robot deployed and that with more robots, fewer jobs are lost. That's why Germany, with hourly rates almost 50% higher than in the U.S., has remained globally competitive: they have twice as many robots per 10,000 workers as do Americans. 

Their research claimed that 3 million jobs were created in factories where accuracy and consistency could not be achieved without robots; and another 300,000 jobs were created where poor working conditions were overcome by the use of robots. 

Much has happened during and since 2008, the unfortunate base year for that report, which is why the IFR re-commissioned Metra Martech in 2012 to update their findings for more recent data.

Robots, Robotics and the 2013 Metra Martech Report:

Early this year CBS News 60 Minutes aired a segment asking but not answering the question: Are robots hurting job growth? Much criticism from robotics industry professionals followed and included an International Federation of Robotics CEO press conference where an abstract of the updated version of the Metra Martech report was presented. Under the banner Robots Create Jobs, they cited the following reasons why they opposed the CBS 60 Minutes piece and why robotics really does create jobs:

1. Robotics is a critical factor in rebalancing world manufacturing economies because it reduces the threat from low-cost-of-labor countries.
2. Although the recession temporarily drew attention away from unsatisfactory work conditions, enhancing work conditions is a driving force for using robots. Replacing dull, dirty and dangerous tasks with robots is the low-hanging fruit of robotics.
3. There are many new industries where only robots can produce precision and consistency standards at an affordable cost as demanded by the competitive global economy.
4. Job creation by robotics, between 2012 and 2020, will be 2.15 million to 3.5 million: 
1. This is the sum of new robotic products (.80 to 1.4 million), 
2. Current industry expansion (.45 to .70 million), 
3. Downstream jobs (.9 to 1.4 million).
5. Downstream jobs will be an additional 2-3 million.

It is the #4 and #5 items which are of interest to most readers and particularly Americans who, by and large, perceive a different set of "facts."

U.S. Facts:

Americans are living through a confusing economic period. They see things in "home economics" terms: job creation is up but nowhere near covering population growth; unemployment has dipped slightly but hides the broader unemployment rate; stock markets are reaching new highs; and house prices and disposable income are both rising. Yet public sentiment is focused on jobs and job creation and for good reason: millions have fallen off the employment grid and the employment figures don't reflect the true numbers nor the hardships this has caused. 

Hence the concern about jobs being taken away: about being left behind, about off-shoring, robots, relocation, acquisition, closures, consolidation or otherwise.

Reviewing the revised Metra Martech findings:

John Dulchinos, former CEO of Adept Technologies, said at the IFR press conference when the revised report was launched (and reiterated in a recent email): 

"Assessing job creation driven by robots is not an exact science and requires piecing together data based on a consistent set of assumptions. 

"Over the past decade the US has lost 6 million manufacturing jobs. This is not the result of robots. It is largely due to offshoring by contract manufacturing companies who have taken a large slice of the manufacturing pie. What is not captured in all the government data is the number of downstream non-manufacturing jobs that disappear when a factory is no longer competitive with low-wage nations and is shut down."

Part of the complexity of the Metra Martech report is that it must take into account the economic, population, industry variables and downstream multipliers unique to each of the main countries in the study. For example, manufacturing accounts for only 11% of employment in the U.S. but 24% in Germany and 27% in South Korea.

I asked Metra Martech's Peter Gorle whether they relied solely on the IFR data or if they supplemented it with other data. Gorle responded by saying:

"The basic data on robot use came from IFR, but we at Metra Martech carried out considerably more research into the employment and unemployment figures and the growth rates in the main user sectors. This provided the fundamental position against which the use of robots was analysed."

Then I asked how they attempted to report the number of people employed through the use of robots net of the number of workers displaced by robot deployment:

"While it is clear that robots can and do replace unskilled, dirty or dangerous occupations, there are two main drivers for added employment resulting from the use of robots. The first is the need to use the repeatability and accuracy which they can provide. Note that this is evident throughout the world no matter what local labour costs. 

"The second driver is the need for industrialised countries to overcome the benefit which the low wage countries offer in production. This tends to result in the loss of some jobs, but it enables companies to retain employees in parts of industry which would otherwise be lost to lower cost areas.

Since most of the conclusions reached by Metra Martech are global in scope and conjectural in nature, it is important to examine the extent of their assumptions. One can see their process at work in the discussion of the chart shown below for the Electrical and Electronics sector:

"Hypothetically, if robots were removed, some products would become unviable, while others would move to low cost countries and be assembled by hand. Many tasks carried out in this sector [Electrical & Electronics], particularly by SMEs (SME refers to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, i.e., small shops, factories with less than 100 employees), are still done by hand. The loss of jobs would thus be greater in the developed countries, and the gain in jobs greater in the lower cost industrializing countries. There are no statistics on this type of dependence and we have made broad estimates based on the above and the number of robots in use in the country in the sector."

Bottom Line:

Many of the assumptions in the updated Metra Martech report are sufficiently transparent such that one can readily accept their position and therefore their conclusions. Thus their projection of 2.15 to 3.5 million new jobs from 2012 to 2020 appears correct:

Source: Metra Martech, 2013, "Potential NEW activity jobs because of robotics 2012 to 2020, pg 10

Although they don't really address statistically what happens to displaced workers; they do say that they are often kept, retrained, and utilized in upscale jobs created as a result of the efficiencies reaped from the new robots. But they don't provide any numbers or formulas to support this thesis.

The updated report moves away from a strict focus on industrial robotics suggesting that SMEs and healthcare/medical robotics will show broad job growth in the next few years. Thus 21% to 24% of Metra Martech's potential new jobs projections include service robots marketing and manufacturing. They rationalize this contradiction by saying that service robots can be likened to consumer products and therefore will need new manufacturing requiring robotics. 

Two areas stand out as seriously unsubstantiated in the report: 

1. Offsets for jobs displaced
2. Downstream jobs

Offsets for jobs displaced, although frequently mentioned in the report, could not be measured with the data available.

Downstream jobs include (1) employment in ancillary businesses which are needed to support robot construction, robotic installations, robot control, and (2) jobs created by adding well-paid robotics industry employees into the community. Metra Martech suggests a third group to be (3) other types of jobs in support of the use of the products manufactured where the products can only be produced by robots.

In manufacturing, an industry statistic to reflect downstream ancillary jobs is 1.3 jobs in a support business for every new job in manufacturing. This multiplier effect is frequently validated in general manufacturing. But applying that figure in the robotics industry is difficult because it relates to jobs whereas the Metra Martech projections apply to robots deployed predicated on the data provided by the IFR. Nowhere in their report is there a correlation of the number of jobs replaced by a single robot thus a true downstream jobs figure cannot be tabulated.

Consequently, I find the Metra Martech report somewhat flawed but not for lack of trying. It was a noble effort and remains a valuable tool showing that the robotics industry really does create jobs.

Kickstarter, Indiegogo and Robotic Start-up Companies

By Frank Tobe, Editor and Publisher, The Robot Report

Fort Mason, San Francisco. Host to the Engadget Expand event held last weekend.

FormLabs' Form 1 $3,300 hi-res 3D printer.

At last weekend's Engadget Expand event in Fort Mason, San Francisco, Kickstarter's co-founder Yancey Strickler started off the show with a presentation of many of Kickstarter's crowd-funding success stories. 17 projects raised $1 million+ in 2012 including Pebble, the customizable watch, Oculus Rift, a  virtual reality headset for video games, SmartThings, a platform and hub that connect household things to the Internet and your smartphone, and Form 1, an affordable plug and play high-res 3D printer. [As an aside, Stanford now teaches a for-credit course on Kickstarter.]

Outside the area where the talks were held were a series of show booths including a group of booths under rival crowd funder Indiegogo's banner. The East Coast / West Coast rivalry between Kickstarter and Indiegogo appears to be good for start-ups and for each company, and it is certainly colorful -- just talk to anybody from Kickstarter about Indiegogo or vice versa. Indiegogo has been pushing globally, incorporating new languages, currencies and localized homepages to encourage foreign investors and campaigns -- and has seen a 20% increase in international activity in recent months. Kickstarter is playing catch-up but definitely moving internationally. All this, plus the New York City versus San Francisco and Silicon Valley competitiveness, makes for a lively rivalry.

The East Coast tech boom, really the New York City tech boom, is very real and growing. 127 start-ups happened in NYC in 2012 - three of which were robotics-related (Falkor Systems, DreamBots, and Robotic Systems & Technologies) and four more nearby (see The Robot Report's Global Map and filter for Start-ups) - showing the vitality of NYC and also that there are serious alternatives to Silicon Valley in terms of software development, technology and entrepreneurship.

Many of the robotics-related start-ups on Kickstarter and Indiegogo fall into two categories: (1) funding for school teams and contests, theater/film/documentary/video/web projects, little gimmicks, gadgets and toys (which call themselves robotic but... it's a stretch), and (2) everything else. A sampling of the eclectic second group includes RoboBrrd, a robotics DIY kit, DiveBot, an ROV with HD cameras, Dragonfly, a GA Tech spin-off hit which raised over $1 million in two days, and RepRapPro Huxley, a new 3D printer which can print all the parts to make... another RepRapPro Huxley.

Certainly this form of crowd-funding is good for some aspects of robotics. But I fear that much time, new-investor enthusiasm, and money are wasted on gimmicks and gadgets that are out of date within a season and have no real follow-up business plan. Further, because crowd funding, like TED Talks, is fun in and of itself, there is a challenge to present, share and seek recognition, an ego-building adventure in addition to the original goal of seeking money for product development.

I understand that from games and toys often comes familiarity, growing awareness and job applicants, but I wonder if a few more successful robotic products like iRobot, Intuitive Surgical, Kiva Systems and Liquid Robotics would have the same effect or better effect. This is the theory espoused by Colin Angle, iRobot's CEO, who has said:

The idea that a humanoid robot with arms would push a vacuum cleaner is an image that has set many expectations and, in some ways, has set back the industry, when, by just rethinking what needs to be done, we can build a product that satisfies a specific need (vacuuming), as iRobot did with their Roomba line of robotic vacuums. I used to think that I was a self-respecting high-tech entrepreneur, but it took me becoming a vacuum cleaner salesman to actually have some success for my company, my investors and myself.

Also see my other article about robotics at the Engadget Expand event.